Georgia - John Kerry meets with Georgian Prime Minister

John Kerry kicks off a series of meetings today for the U.S. with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. Later in the week President Obama and Vice President Biden will also take meetings with the Georgian Prime Minister.

See the Department of State press release here:

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/222546.htm

The timing of this meeting is very interesting but not at all surprising. Washington is looking to capitalize on the Ukrainian success and push on other countries in Russia's near abroad. You can bet that western backed pro democracy NGO's (the thorn in Putin's side) will be a major topic of discussion. Leveraging their gains in Ukraine will be critical in these early stages.

Look for more of these higher level meetings to take place elsewhere in Russia's periphery. Belarus and Moldova are sure to see similar treatment. Turning up the heat on Moscow appears to be in full swing for the Obama Administration. It's not surprising seeing as how aggressive Russia has been lately in the Middle East.

Keep an eye on how Russia responds. A good case can made that Russia was pushed to invade Georgia back in 2008 as a response to these populist uprisings. Putin feared the epidemic within his own borders and felt he had to make a statement. Invading Georgia showed the region that Washington couldn't protect them. Now in Ukraine the appearance is that Russia could not intervene to stop the populist uprisings. How will Moscow respond this time?

Qatar - The United States’ Main Priority in the Middle East

Before saying anything I want the reader to remember one all encompassing point. If you get confused or lose track with anything in the following article go back and reference the next statement. Everything that happens in the Middle East revolves around energy.

Ok, now that we’ve got that out of the way…

Ever since the Arab Spring kicked off in December of 2010 I’ve been curiously following the Muslim Brotherhood. That obviously got me very interested in the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and I looked on in amazement as the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi became President. The most interesting thing for me was how The United States and the Arab media dominated by Al Jazeera backed this new regime so intently.

Almost every Middle Eastern nation has an outright ban on the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood infiltrates a nation from the inside, incites populist uprisings, and attempts to topple governments. Egypt was their crowning achievement. So why is Qatar, who runs the Al Jazeera news network, the only nation in the Middle East not scared of the Muslim Brotherhood? Why was the United States so fully committed to Morsi’s government? It seems more evident as time goes by that the Muslim Brotherhood is a geopolitical tool being used by The United States and Qatar.

Why Qatar? Calling Qatar a country is a bit of a stretch. With a population of around 1.8 million only 250,000 of these are actual citizens. Citizens pay zero income tax and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world at 106,000. Qatar is an absolute monarchy ruled by the Al Thani family. The current Emir is Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. I think it’s more accurate to look at Qatar as a large LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) company and the Emir is the CEO. The rest of the Al Thani family are the board members. This set up makes for a perfect relationship with the business minded Americans.

The relationship between the U.S. and Qatar took a big step forward in 1991. In an effort to diversify away from oil as their main cash crop a United States construction firm named Bechtel supervised the construction of the North Dome natural gas field off the Northeast coast. ExxonMobile stepped right up and became the largest foreign investor in the North field. Two U.S. companies were overseeing the development of the infrastructure and the drilling. In fact, the U.S. and other western nations provide the pink slips for all of the technology used in the North Field and in the GTL (gas-to-liquids) technology which makes it possible to ship LNG via the sea lanes.

The power of Qatar’s natural gas reserves is insane. They’re #3 in the world behind Russia and Iran respectively. The big difference is that Qatar only has 1.8 million inhabitants with only 250,000 of them being citizens. It’s a ridiculous amount of power all in the hands of the Al Thani family.

So in 1991 we have Bechtel and ExxonMobile developing the third largest gas reserves in the world. Later in that decade the Thani’s constructed the Al Udeid Air Base just south of Doha. Kind of interesting since Qatar didn’t even have an air force at the time. In steps the United States Army Corps of Engineers who begin constructing what would now be called United States Central Command.

It’s interesting to note that Qatar’s “military” is little more than a show piece. They have roughly 11,000 men to protect their borders and assets. How many Americans are at Al Udeid? Well, the exact number is classified. I’ve been there and it looked like a lot to me. It’s well known that in 1999 the Emir approved 10,000 U.S. personnel to be permanently stationed there. That’s almost as many as there are in the entire Qatari armed forces. Basically you can say that USCENTCOM is the guaranteer of Qatari security. We’ve never come out and actually said that but that’s what we’ve done. You can’t say the same for any other U.S. ally in theater...Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, not even Israel!

We’ve doubled down on Qatar and have slowly been alienating our traditional allies in the Middle East. It’s all about who controls the flow of energy. Qatar will be a major supplier to much of the world. They’re already the main supplier of LNG to Asia. Asia’s consumption is set to explode over the next 10-20 years.

The primary route for Asia’s LNG is across the Indian Ocean and up through the South China Sea. Kind of puts into perspective why China is building up their naval presence there. Currently if you want to shut down China all you have to do is blockade ships coming from the Indian Ocean up through the South China Sea. Right now, Qatar and the United States control that flow of energy.

This brings us back to Egypt. The use of the Arab Gas Pipeline is a major strategic goal for both Qatar and the U.S. Access to that pipeline would enable Qatar to supply gas all the way into Syria.

Depending on who wins the current Syrian Civil war the Arab Gas Pipeline could extend up into Turkey where it would then link up with the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. Qatar’s North Field along with Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field would pump more natural gas into Europe than Russia does. This puts into perspective why Qatar has been funding the Syrian Opposition with weapons. It also shows why Russia is so adamant that they do not let Assad lose the country.

We’re out of the Cold War and into the Fossil Fuel War. Whoever controls the flow of energy controls the world. Right now the United States is going all in to ensure Qatar is the main supplier of natural gas to the planet. The current crises in Ukraine, the civil war in Syria, and even higher tensions in the South China Sea are all due in some part to this war. A chessboard that saw it’s pieces laid in the early 90’s is nearing its mid-game stage. The conclusion is still far from over.

In the end regardless of whether they tell you that the issue is either human rights, pro democracy, chemical weapons, etc….Everything that happens in the Middle East revolves around energy.

Why Putin Chose Sochi

For Putin this year’s winter Olympics in Sochi are about much more than hosting the greatest amateur sporting event on the planet. It’s not about the prestige of the event or the economic boost that it provides to the area. Hosting the Olympics should be a symbol of pride for the citizens of Russia. This should be Putin’s main goal.

This is however far from the reality. This is a show of force. It’s a foreign policy statement. This year’s Olympics are the next stage in Putin’s rebirth for Russia.

Putin’s gone all in on this move. He chose Sochi deliberately. This is him saying that not only will I successfully pull off the greatest global event of the year but I’ll do it in one of the most violent regions on earth. It’s a statement directed not only at the west but to his own people as well. In short Putin is saying this – Call it an autocratic oppressive regime if you want…it works.

It’s hard to get in the head of someone like Putin if you’re an American born in the United States. As American’s we’re blessed by land with an amazing geography. The Atlantic and the Pacific Oceans have provided us with an insulation that Russian’s have never known. The Russian’s have been fighting for their very existence ever since the great hordes from the Steppe invaded time and again from the East. Likewise, nations from the other side of the continent pushed back and invaded from the west. Russians survived this constant back and forth quiet miraculously. Their current mentality has been burned into them ever since the 10th century. Their leaders quickly found out that if they were to survive in that geographic position they would need to rule their people with an iron fist. Russian people typically accept this fact and see autocratic rule as necessary for their survival.

Putin is a Russian of the old order.  Just like the leaders before him he knows that to control a population as massive and as demographically diverse as Russia’s he needs to rule absolutely. Fear, intimidation, and control are his tools.

Ever since he took office Putin’s main goal has been to re-establish the regional dominance they once enjoyed under the Soviet Union.  To do this he’s primarily used Russia’s energy and economic dominance in the region to bully and intimidate former Soviet bloc nations into doing Moscow’s bidding. In fact, every former Soviet bloc country that the West has tried to move into Putin has employed his usual bully tactics. Take Ukraine and Georgia for example. The Ukrainian Orange Revolution was backed by pro democracy western NGO’s. The result was the election of Viktor Yushchenko to the Presidency who was heavily in favor of EU integration. The same outcome happened in Georgia only theirs was called the Rose Revolution. Russian regional dominance was disappearing one former Soviet bloc country at a time. For Putin, the west’s meddling in Ukraine and Georgia via NGO’s was equivalent to an act of war. He first responded by invading Georgia in 2008. The premise was to protect the breakaway Ossetians and Abkhazians from the Georgian government. That was merely an excuse to give Putin the go ahead to send Russia’s “near abroad” a message. More specifically to Ukraine, Putin was saying “The United States can’t protect you. It’s time to remember who the biggest bully on the block is.” This made Ukraine blink. To drive the point home Putin shut off the energy flow to Ukraine and the rest of the EU and imposed severe economic restrictions on Ukraine. The result was a Ukraine beaten into submission and a clear message sent to the west…”stay out of the former soviet bloc countries”.

Western backed NGO’s remain to this day a target for Vladimir Putin. The power of these organizations to incite populist grassroots movements was on full display during the Arab Spring. Putin could feel his own people watch as one autocratic regime after the other began to topple. Ukraine and Georgia became Libya and Egypt. Then came Syria. Russia’s involvement in Syria was very similar to Georgia. Like Georgia Russia has a strategic interest in Syria. However, the message Putin wants to project is far more important. The message is that an authoritarian regime is more powerful than a populist uprising. Directed straight at the west and their agents within Russia the message is clear…Rise up against me and get crushed.

Now that we know how Putin thinks and is motivated we can go back to Sochi. So why have the Olympics in the Caucasus? Some of the best skiing in the world is north of St Petersburg along the border with Finland. Wouldn’t holding the Olympics there be a huge economic boost to one of your most famous cities? Wouldn’t infrastructure in that area be in better shape and more developed? What about the Ural Mountains? None of those locations were chosen. Instead, Putin looked at the map and chose the most violent and volatile area in his country. Threats come from Islamic terrorists, Ethnic nationalists (Chechnya, Dagestan, Ingushetia, etc), and the possibility (however slight) of a Georgian invasion of Ossetia and Abkhazia. The decision seems crazy. Why have the Olympics here?

Again we see Vladimir Putin the bully and intimidator. I said before that Putin went all in on this move. He’s gambling big here to send a message all over the world and to his own people.

To the ethnic nationalist’s – This area is Russian territory and it always will be. Resistance is futile.

To the Islamic terrorists – Your days of attacking schools, theaters, and airports are over. The crackdown I’ve started now is just the beginning.

To the Russian people – my way (the Russian way) works. I was able to pull this off in the den of the Caucasus Emirate and kept everyone safe. My tactics were brutal and oppressive but they kept everyone safe. Empower me to expand my methods. I’m willing to bet that the surveillance and the security in this region are there to stay. This just gave Putin an under the radar window to increase surveillance and control permanently.

To the rest of the world – NGO led populist movements don’t work. I’ve proven it in Ukraine, Georgia, and now in Syria. People need to be controlled not free. How else would I have pulled off an Olympics in the Caucasus?