Catching up on Syria

I was watching open source media this past weekend and read a report where Turkish F-16’s were scrambled to shoot down a Syrian warplane that had violated its airspace. For Turkey being a member of NATO definitely has it’s advantages but this situation isn’t one of them. You can bet Turkish Prime Minister Recep Erdogan is probably sick of fielding calls from the United States and the rest of NATO urging him to have restraint. Even though Turkey may want to, the repercussions of overt military action against the Syrian regime would be too dangerous.

If Ankara wanted to they could “shock and awe” Damascus into submission in probably a little under 48 hours. Turkey has one of the most capable militaries in the entire region. They’re on the same level as countries like France, Germany, and Russia. And this is exactly what Turkey wants to do. Toppling a brutal dictator like Assad would solidify Turkey as the leader of the Islamic world. Something Ankara gave up after WW1 when the Ottoman Empire fell. It’s really hard not to see them reclaim that birthright. They’ve just been distracted by the fallout of two world wars.

The one thing holding Turkey back is their NATO membership. If Turkey attacks the Syrian national army on Syrian soil how long before Iran counter attacks? How long before Russia jumps in? Turkey would claim NATO article 5 the moment Iran or Russia stepped in and that would bring in the rest of the world.

So we’re left with a war in Syria fought covertly. It’s a war that multiple nations are fighting but no one can admit it publicly. So many countries have covert stakes invested in this war that it’s confusing to realize whose side they’re on and what they ultimately want. It’s no wonder the rebels are so splintered and chaotic. They’re getting pulled in multiple directions by multiple actors.

Here is a quick breakdown of the players. This is just a glance and I’m leaving a lot out but even in summary it gets confusing.

For Syria and Assad -

Iran, Hezbollah, and Russia. The Iranian/Hezbollah alliance is obvious and easy to understand. Syria has been an ally of Iran since the Iranian revolution of 1979. They’ve been tight ever since.

Iran saw an opening after the U.S. led invasion of Iraq. Iran saw the possibility for a sphere of influence from Tehran, through Baghdad, all the way to Damascus. That’s been their geopolitical play for the past decade.

Russia’s dog in this fight is a little murkier. Russia has the obvious interest in their long time naval port at Tartus, but you have to read between the lines to see their real interests. Symbolically their support for Assad shows Russia’s periphery and even their own people that populist uprisings can be managed/crushed by a determined government. This has so far worked in Syria but not so much in Ukraine. They also want to slow the construction of natural gas pipelines from the southern gas corridor up into Western Europe. Two proposed pipelines may eventually run straight through Syria, through Turkey, then on into Europe. Restricting natural gas diversification in western Europe is one of Moscow’s main strategic goals in this decade and through the next half century.

For the rebels -

Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the U.S. and the rest of the west.

Turkey is poised to take over as the leader of the Islamic World once again.

• They successfully maintained good ties with the west but at the same time oriented themselves toward the middle east.
• They’ve re-established relations with Iran and have been a go between/mediator for the Arab nations and for the west/middle east as well.
• Turkey controls the upper courses of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers which is the main source of water to most of the Arab world.
• Ever since the Ottoman Empire Turkey has been able to balance their political system with Islam. They’ve carried that over to present day and they’re the best chance to lead the “democratic Islam” experiment that the Arab Spring kicked off.

Turkey has lately taken a less aggressive and overt tone but they’re still major players. Much of the weapons, soldiers, and aid come across Turkish border crossings. It’s interesting to note how the current political problems and social unrest have forced Ankara to put their Syrian agenda on the back burner. In fact many of the recent protest areas have come from Kurdish dominated neighborhoods. Both Syria and Iran have used the Kurdish card in the past to cause internal problems in Turkey. Something to keep an eye on.

Now here’s where it gets even more confusing. Both Saudi Arabia and Qatar desire the same outcome. The ultimate defeat of Bashar al-Assad. They also both support rebel groups that are fighting Assad’s regime. However, they both disagree with whom should ultimately control Syria. Qatar and Turkey favor a Muslim Brotherhood dominated Syria and are thus funding/supplying those groups. Saudi Arabia fears the Brotherhood and is funding/supplying alternate Salafi groups that SA could control in the long run.

No one hears much about the Free Syria Army (FSA) anymore. Just a couple years ago they were the largest and most effective rebel collective in the conflict. However, the West and the Muslim Brotherhood were too overt in their support. This had the effect of alienating the hard liners. Groups such as al-Nusra and ISIS used this as a rallying call to recruit thousands to their banners further splintering the rebel ranks.

After the FSA fallout and the rise of al-Nusra and ISIS Saudi Arabia began funding alternate groups to combat the radicals. The result was a group called the Islam Army. The problem was that they were running into some of the same problems that the FSA did. Alienating the hard liners.

Qatar stepped back in and formed an alliance called the Islamic Front that incorporated the Islam Army into their ranks. The current members are:

• The Islamic Ahrar al-Sham Movement
• The Kurdish Islamic Front
• The Islam Army
• The Ansar al-Sham Battalions
• The Haq Brigade
• The Tawhid Brigade
• The Suqour al-Sham Brigades

This alliance is currently the most effective and numerous rebel fighting force in Syria. It  incorporates both hard line radical groups and moderates. Rather than supporting them outright and overtly the current benefactors are attempting to remain hidden.

The tug of war match between Qatar/Turkey and Saudi Arabia has severely crippled the rebel campaign. It has effectively deadlocked the war. The Syrian regime makes gains then the rebels make gains. It’s constantly shifting. The Syrian army is well funded/supplied but is too spread thin. The rebels are meagerly funded/supplied but have effectively opened up enough fronts in the war that Assad can’t fight all at once.

The question has come down to who can last the longest. It’s a lose lose whichever way you look at it. If Assad wins then he’ll be seen as a brutal dictator that was successful in oppressing his people. If the rebels win they’ll inherit a country ripe with extremists. It’ll take the combined effort of the entire Islamic world to guide Syria’s future. My guess is it’ll be a Qatari funded but Turkish led Syrian democracy.

Qatar - The United States’ Main Priority in the Middle East

Before saying anything I want the reader to remember one all encompassing point. If you get confused or lose track with anything in the following article go back and reference the next statement. Everything that happens in the Middle East revolves around energy.

Ok, now that we’ve got that out of the way…

Ever since the Arab Spring kicked off in December of 2010 I’ve been curiously following the Muslim Brotherhood. That obviously got me very interested in the Egyptian Revolution of 2011 and I looked on in amazement as the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammed Morsi became President. The most interesting thing for me was how The United States and the Arab media dominated by Al Jazeera backed this new regime so intently.

Almost every Middle Eastern nation has an outright ban on the Muslim Brotherhood. The Muslim Brotherhood infiltrates a nation from the inside, incites populist uprisings, and attempts to topple governments. Egypt was their crowning achievement. So why is Qatar, who runs the Al Jazeera news network, the only nation in the Middle East not scared of the Muslim Brotherhood? Why was the United States so fully committed to Morsi’s government? It seems more evident as time goes by that the Muslim Brotherhood is a geopolitical tool being used by The United States and Qatar.

Why Qatar? Calling Qatar a country is a bit of a stretch. With a population of around 1.8 million only 250,000 of these are actual citizens. Citizens pay zero income tax and enjoy the highest per capita GDP in the world at 106,000. Qatar is an absolute monarchy ruled by the Al Thani family. The current Emir is Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani. I think it’s more accurate to look at Qatar as a large LNG (Liquified Natural Gas) company and the Emir is the CEO. The rest of the Al Thani family are the board members. This set up makes for a perfect relationship with the business minded Americans.

The relationship between the U.S. and Qatar took a big step forward in 1991. In an effort to diversify away from oil as their main cash crop a United States construction firm named Bechtel supervised the construction of the North Dome natural gas field off the Northeast coast. ExxonMobile stepped right up and became the largest foreign investor in the North field. Two U.S. companies were overseeing the development of the infrastructure and the drilling. In fact, the U.S. and other western nations provide the pink slips for all of the technology used in the North Field and in the GTL (gas-to-liquids) technology which makes it possible to ship LNG via the sea lanes.

The power of Qatar’s natural gas reserves is insane. They’re #3 in the world behind Russia and Iran respectively. The big difference is that Qatar only has 1.8 million inhabitants with only 250,000 of them being citizens. It’s a ridiculous amount of power all in the hands of the Al Thani family.

So in 1991 we have Bechtel and ExxonMobile developing the third largest gas reserves in the world. Later in that decade the Thani’s constructed the Al Udeid Air Base just south of Doha. Kind of interesting since Qatar didn’t even have an air force at the time. In steps the United States Army Corps of Engineers who begin constructing what would now be called United States Central Command.

It’s interesting to note that Qatar’s “military” is little more than a show piece. They have roughly 11,000 men to protect their borders and assets. How many Americans are at Al Udeid? Well, the exact number is classified. I’ve been there and it looked like a lot to me. It’s well known that in 1999 the Emir approved 10,000 U.S. personnel to be permanently stationed there. That’s almost as many as there are in the entire Qatari armed forces. Basically you can say that USCENTCOM is the guaranteer of Qatari security. We’ve never come out and actually said that but that’s what we’ve done. You can’t say the same for any other U.S. ally in theater...Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, not even Israel!

We’ve doubled down on Qatar and have slowly been alienating our traditional allies in the Middle East. It’s all about who controls the flow of energy. Qatar will be a major supplier to much of the world. They’re already the main supplier of LNG to Asia. Asia’s consumption is set to explode over the next 10-20 years.

The primary route for Asia’s LNG is across the Indian Ocean and up through the South China Sea. Kind of puts into perspective why China is building up their naval presence there. Currently if you want to shut down China all you have to do is blockade ships coming from the Indian Ocean up through the South China Sea. Right now, Qatar and the United States control that flow of energy.

This brings us back to Egypt. The use of the Arab Gas Pipeline is a major strategic goal for both Qatar and the U.S. Access to that pipeline would enable Qatar to supply gas all the way into Syria.

Depending on who wins the current Syrian Civil war the Arab Gas Pipeline could extend up into Turkey where it would then link up with the South Caucasus Pipeline, the Trans-Anatolian Pipeline, and the Trans Adriatic Pipeline. Qatar’s North Field along with Azerbaijan’s Shah Deniz gas field would pump more natural gas into Europe than Russia does. This puts into perspective why Qatar has been funding the Syrian Opposition with weapons. It also shows why Russia is so adamant that they do not let Assad lose the country.

We’re out of the Cold War and into the Fossil Fuel War. Whoever controls the flow of energy controls the world. Right now the United States is going all in to ensure Qatar is the main supplier of natural gas to the planet. The current crises in Ukraine, the civil war in Syria, and even higher tensions in the South China Sea are all due in some part to this war. A chessboard that saw it’s pieces laid in the early 90’s is nearing its mid-game stage. The conclusion is still far from over.

In the end regardless of whether they tell you that the issue is either human rights, pro democracy, chemical weapons, etc….Everything that happens in the Middle East revolves around energy.