What's Putin's next move - The Russian Playbook

Russian military units began pouring into Eastern Ukraine this past weekend. No longer trying to hide or be covert. Russian war equipment theatrically paraded across the border with their unit designators on display for all to see. It’s no coincidence that a small army of reporters and tweeters were on site to witness the entire show.

They weren’t even trying to hide it. They might as well have been passing in review in the middle of Red Square.

This isn’t surprising at all. In fact it’s a textbook move by Vladimir Putin. A textbook the Russians have been following since the Soviet Union fell in 1991. When the USSR fell there were two main strategic priorities the Russian’s were concerned about. The first and most important was Ukraine which is Russia’s gateway to Western Europe. Jimmy Carter’s National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski said the following regarding Ukraine’s importance to Russia:

“Ukraine, a new and important space on the Eurasian chessboard, is a geopolitical pivot because its very existence as an independent country helps to transform Russia. Without Ukraine, Russia ceases to be a Eurasian empire.”

The second was Georgia which is Russia’s gateway to the oil and warm waters of the Middle East. Russia has had aspirations to extend into the Middle East ever since the Stalin days. Both Ukraine and Georgia are the two geographic pivots necessary for Russia to become an empire.

The Soviet Union officially dissolved on Christmas day 1991. The leadership of the new Russian Federation identified their two main priorities and assessed risks. The Soviets had devoted much to Ukraine over the years. The result of which was a heavily entrenched political support base. Ukraine and Belarus along with Russia became the founding members of the new Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS).

Georgia however was another matter. The Russians knew that the Georgian political elite were ready to turn to NATO. To counter this they flamed ethnic fires with two ethnic groups within Georgia. Ossetians in the North and Abkhazians in the North West.

The conflict began as simple protests but it quickly escalated. Ossetians and Abkhazians began attacking Georgian government buildings with home made weapons and hunting rifles. Pretty soon the separatists began getting weapon supplies from Russia. The conflicts came to a close with Russia brokering a cease fire that left Georgia fractured. Two autonomous regions emerged - Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

If this sounds familiar to you….it should be. If you played the news broadcasts of Ukraine today side by side with those from Georgia in 1992 you wouldn’t be able to tell the difference. The tactics used are near identical. Remember when the Russian separatists shot down Malaysian commercial flight MH17? That exact same scenario happened in Abkhazia in 1993. Only in Georgia the separatists shot down more than one commercial plane.

http://articles.latimes.com/1993-09-23/news/mn-38196_1_georgian-army       

The process the Russians followed in Georgia is strikingly similar to present day Ukraine. Moscow helps to force a stalemate by supplying the separatists with arms. Once that stalemate happens they help broker a ceasefire.There’s usually a caveat in that ceasefire that states that the Russian military guarantees the peace and will intervene if it’s broken. The end result is an autonomous region within the country that is loyal to Russia.

Fast forward to 2004. Ukraine was on the verge of their “Orange Revolution”. Like the Georgians in 1992 the Ukrainians now looked to the West rather than to Moscow. The uprisings forced a recount in the their ongoing presidential election and the heavily Russian supported Viktor Yanukovych was ousted.

The Orange Revolution would spread to both Belarus and Russia herself. Russia had to do something….

Russia had already laid the foundation for their response back in Georgia in 1992. In 2008 “color revolutions” had spread from Ukraine to Belarus and Russia. For seemingly no reason at all the autonomous region of South Ossetia began shelling various Georgian positions. Georgia counter attacked and closed in on South Ossetia. On cue Russia invaded into Georgia backed up by Abkhazian forces from the North West. The conflict would later end again via a Russian brokered cease fire.

The message was clear - the Soviet Union may be gone but the Russians are still in control. The Georgian conflict sent ripples of fear all over the former Soviet Bloc. The “color revolutions” died out and Ukraine began to slide back under Russia’s thumb.

Ukrainians now in 2014 see themselves as the Georgians of 2008. Russia following their textbook has positioned Kiev to have to make the same decisions Tbilisi made in 2008. If the autonomous regions in Eastern Ukraine begin shelling Ukrainian positions, like the South Ossetians did, Ukraine will have to react with caution and restraint. If they over react Russia will use that to send another message and will fully invade Eastern Ukraine.

What happens next?

I really think that the Ukrainian revolution of 2014 was something the Russians didn’t expect to happen. They assumed they’d always be able to manipulate Ukraine using their political and economic stranglehold they enjoyed in Kiev. However, when Yanukovych’s regime was ousted Putin was forced to escalate the timeline. 2008 Georgia was brought to 2014 Ukraine. If Ukraine continues their push to integrate into the EU and forge a relationship with NATO Russia will push the autonomous regions in Eastern Ukraine to begin shelling Ukrainian positions….a la South Ossetia 2008. Moscow will wait and gauge their reaction.

If Georgia continues their goals of joining NATO Russia WILL annex either Abkhazia, South Ossetia or both. They’ll most probably annex Abkhazia and dangle South Ossetia as a future warning.

Georgia and Ukraine represent Russia’s primary targets, but keep in mind the effect all this will have on the rest of the region. Places such as Moldova, Belarus and even Russia’s own populace will be watching.

Moscow is following a geopolitical playbook using plays they’ve already ran. Realizing and understanding this is key to predicting what they want and what they’re willing to do in the future.

Ukraine, Crimea, Russia - What do we do?

The more I watch the media coverage on Ukraine, Crimea, and Russia the more irritated I am on what’s being said. More importantly, however,  is what’s not being said. No one is talking about what the long term repercussions of Russia’s actions are for the entire “World Island”.

Putin appears to be advocating an extremely dangerous foreign policy. He’s saying that ethnic identification is more important than citizenship.

In Putin’s mind if there’s a high ethnic population in a foreign country that gives the right to militarily annex territory from a sovereign nation. This foreign policy was on display in the invasion of Georgia in 2008 and now currently in Ukraine.

Be very careful with the box you’re opening up here Mr Putin. You’re stoking the flames of nationalism in an area that has seen this type of behavior before. Europe is already seeing the rise of several far right groups. The situation in Crimea has the ability to create an ethnic ripple that could reach both great oceans.

How long before the Chinese use this as a basis to annex parts of eastern Russia? The number of Han Chinese along Russia’s eastern border grows every year. How long before Azerbaijan uses their high number of ethnic Azeris inside Iran? What about the high amount of ethnic Hungarians in Romania? As history has shown all it takes is one charismatic leader to stoke the fascist flames.

No one seems too keen on providing the public with actual options. How can we as citizens demand any kind of action from our elected officials if we don’t understand what needs to be done? Quit with the clever catch phrases like “It’s a new Cold War” or “Putin out maneuvers the west” etc.

Well….what should the U.S./Western response be?

First of all Russia needs to be expelled from the G8 immediately. How they got in at all was a complete mystery. There’s nothing complex or dynamic with their economy. It’s a fossil fuel export driven cartel...that’s about it. Immediately offer the vacant space to China. This would send not only Russia a message but also to China as well. Reading between the lines China would know that their G8 membership could be stripped if their aggression in the East and South China Seas get out of control.

Second, the United States needs to increase their military footprint in NATO countries. Nothing major that would constitute a buildup on Russian borders. Just enough to show the eastern European countries that we’re committed to their security.

Third, the U.S. needs to immediately approve natural gas exports to western European allies, NATO members, and other countries Russia threatens with their energy monopoly. This would help to take away Moscow’s natural gas trump card, and buy some time for the southern gas corridor pipelines to be built (roughly in 2018).

Remember that having Putin so focussed on his periphery is a very good thing. I laugh when I hear people claim that Putin outmaneuvered the west on this. How? Besides the fact that Russia lost Ukraine the biggest loss is that he woke the United State’s up in an area he thought was secure. Putin was so comfortable with the state of affairs in the countries along his borders that he got greedy and began to meddle elsewhere. Iran, Syria, Egypt...all areas he was able to engage in with the stability of his periphery. Now he can’t devote so much attention there anymore.

If I’m John Kerry I’m advising the President to keep Putin focused on Ukraine, Georgia, Moldova, Belarus, etc. Don’t let the heat on this cool. While Putin’s eye is focused here we can go back to work elsewhere.

Russia is not a global superpower. They are however a strong regional power. The down side of a regional power trying to exert themselves throughout the globe is that they get over extended. This is what’s happening currently to Putin and why he’s currently on the defensive….not offensive.

Ukraine, Crimea, Russia...Monday morning thoughts

The hard reality is that Ukraine has next to no strategic value for the United States. We’re no longer in the business of stopping the spread of communism. That mission is dead. The only value of Ukraine for the west is that it helps to solidify a stronger Central Europe that checks the power of both Western Europe and Russia. Similar to how the map looked pre-WW1. It goes right along with the recent defense cuts proposed by Chuck Hagel. The new strategy is disengagement.  In order to disengage we must first ensure that there are adequate regional power checks.

On the other hand, Ukraine is a significant strategic priority for Moscow. The majority of European natural gas runs straight through Ukraine. Russia’s economic survival hinges on ensuring fossil fuels continue running through Ukraine’s borders. The references to the Cold War are humorous. We’re now in a Fossil Fuel War. Whomever controls the flow of energy controls the world. Moscow is fighting for Ukraine to ensure that they control the flow of energy into Western Europe.

Fortunately for Moscow all the cards are in their favor. No matter how much support the west gives to pro democracy NGO’s the economic realities will not change. Ukraine has an energy and economic problem. The U.S. and the EU can’t solve it for them. Russia can. All Moscow has to do is sit back and let panic set in. The struggling EU simply can’t write the checks that Kiev needs. The harsh realities of the Russian Georgian invasion of 2008 are the same today. The U.S. can’t intervene to protect nations in Russia’s periphery. Russia invaded South Ossetia and we couldn’t stop them. If they invade Crimea the result would be similar.

The answer:

If Ukraine has no strategic value for the U.S. but is important to Russia than what is the purpose? This is a distraction. Plain and simple. Russia has increased their presence on the world stage over the past couple of years. Iran, Syria, Snowden, and then the arms deal with Egypt was the last straw.

For years Russia has capitalized on the United State’s preoccupation with the middle east. They’ve used that to regain the ground they lost in their near abroad since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Putin felt comfortable with his periphery. Belarus was as close an ally as ever, Kazakhstan, Ukraine with Yanukovich, etc. He started to move beyond his near abroad into Iran, Syria, Egypt….into territory claimed by the U.S. comfortably for the past 50 years.

The arms deal with Egypt was the last straw. The Maidan protests in Ukraine would step up their game and begin to occupy government buildings. Yanukovich’s governemt fell. At the same time the Obama Administration scheduled high level meetings with the foreign ministers of both Moldova and Georgia. The strategy is obvious….mess in our backyard and we’ll snoop around in yours. Putin can no longer devote his attention outside his region (Syria, Venezuela, Egypt, Iran). He has to police his own neighborhood.

The lesson is learned: this is the difference between a Superpower and a Regional power.

If Moscow is busy dealing with Ukraine/Moldova/Georgia they’re not concentrating on supplying Assad with surface to air missiles. They’re not concentrating on being the major supplier of arms to the greater middle east. They’re not concerned with supporting Iran….etc.

The strategic significance of Ukraine to the U.S. is that it’s a major distraction for Russia...and that’s all.

What happens next:

Putin chose Crimea as his answer to Maidan. Eastern Ukraine is thick with ethnic Russians but Crimea is about 60% ethnic Russian. If Putin is anything like his 2008 self he’ll invade Crimea in order to “protect ethnic Russians” just like he did in South Ossetia in Georgia. Just as in 2008 the message will be clear. The U.S. can’t stop Russia from influencing their near abroad.

It’s a hard truth. Ukraine is destined to be caught in the middle between Russia and the west. Central Europeans in the west and ethnic Russians in the east. The only thing that will help to free Ukraine from Russia’s influence is natural gas from the southern gas corridor. Oil/gas from the middle east to compete with Russian oil/gas will help Ukraine break free. Until those pipelines are completed Russia will continue to control the flow of energy into western Europe and will thus keep their foot on the neck of Ukraine.

The Crimean conflict will rest squarely on the shoulders of the Ukrainian military. The U.S. and NATO will not directly engage Russian forces. My guess is that the U.S. and the EU are urging restraint. An overly forceful response by the Ukrainian military is exactly what Putin is waiting for. That’s what green lit him in Georgia in 2008.

The U.S. doesn’t necessarily want this resolved too quickly. It’s a much needed distraction for Vladimir Putin.

A strong answer to Snowden, Egypt, Syria...etc. Regardless of how this is spinned. It shows that Moscow over extended itself and is now paying the price.

Crimea - Barometer for eastern Ukraine

Reuters posted a video today that showed two rival protest groups clashing in the Crimean administrative capital of Simferopol.

link:

http://www.reuters.com/video/2014/02/26/rival-protest-groups-rally-outside-crime?videoId=283762891&videoChannel=117760

The rhetoric coming from Moscow is worrisome. The Russian Foreign Ministry stated that the protesters were “extremists” and that foreign governments were “imposing their will”. The rhetoric is even more significant as President Putin ordered a readiness test of Russian troops along the western border putting them on high alert.

History shows how Putin has responded to these situations in the past. In 2008 Putin threatened Georgia that if Russian citizens were threatened he would step in to defend them. The autonomous South Ossetia would be invaded and the short Russia/Georgian War would end with considerable casualties. Russian troops remain in South Ossetia to this day.

Crimea is over 60% Russian and holds a major Naval port for Russia’s Black Sea Fleet. If Putin uses similar rhetoric as he did in 2008 it’s highly possible he could  invade Crimea to “defend Russian citizens” and Russian property (Black Sea Fleet Naval facilities). Similar rhetoric could also be used to justify the invasion of the other eastern provinces that have a high amount of ethnic Russians.

Georgia - John Kerry meets with Georgian Prime Minister

John Kerry kicks off a series of meetings today for the U.S. with Georgian Prime Minister Irakli Garibashvili. Later in the week President Obama and Vice President Biden will also take meetings with the Georgian Prime Minister.

See the Department of State press release here:

http://www.state.gov/r/pa/prs/ps/2014/02/222546.htm

The timing of this meeting is very interesting but not at all surprising. Washington is looking to capitalize on the Ukrainian success and push on other countries in Russia's near abroad. You can bet that western backed pro democracy NGO's (the thorn in Putin's side) will be a major topic of discussion. Leveraging their gains in Ukraine will be critical in these early stages.

Look for more of these higher level meetings to take place elsewhere in Russia's periphery. Belarus and Moldova are sure to see similar treatment. Turning up the heat on Moscow appears to be in full swing for the Obama Administration. It's not surprising seeing as how aggressive Russia has been lately in the Middle East.

Keep an eye on how Russia responds. A good case can made that Russia was pushed to invade Georgia back in 2008 as a response to these populist uprisings. Putin feared the epidemic within his own borders and felt he had to make a statement. Invading Georgia showed the region that Washington couldn't protect them. Now in Ukraine the appearance is that Russia could not intervene to stop the populist uprisings. How will Moscow respond this time?